Fall Guy Hits $100M Milestone: Can It Achieve Profitability?

The Fall Guy has been struggling at the box office, but it just crossed an important milestone on the long road to profitability. Starring Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt, Fall Guy follows a former Hollywood stuntman as he tries to uncover a deadly mystery. The movie was directed by David Leitch, who previously directed Bullet Train and Deadpool 2. Despite a $27.7 million domestic opening weekend, Fall Guy has been struggling due to its massive $125-140 million budget, which makes profitability difficult to achieve.

Those early struggles have been offset by a much-needed milestone that could help the well-reviewed Fall Guy achieve box office success. According to a report by The Numbers, The Fall Guy has crossed $100 million at the worldwide box office. It has earned $54 million internationally and $49.7 million domestically after a 51% second weekend drop. Profitability is still a distant hope for Gosling’s latest action thriller.

Reaching profitability can be difficult for movies with high budgets and underwhelming openings, even if they earn back their exact budget allotment. Because of marketing costs, Hollywood movies typically need to earn 2.5x their budget in order to reach profitability. Considering The Fall Guy’s $125-140 million budget, it will need to earn between $310-350 million to achieve some level of profit. In its second weekend, The Fall Guy is still sitting at just $100 million, having not even earned the listed budgetary amount.

Earning over $200 million against Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes and the upcoming Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga will be a massive hurdle. Having already suffered a 51% drop from its opening to its second week, it is highly unlikely that word-of-mouth can save Fall Guy even with high audience support. It has earned an 87% audience score on Rotten Tomatoes and an 81% Tomatometer score, but those totals hardly supported its growth. Fall Guy will likely need to have a strong international performance, given that most of its take has been from international markets.

Luckily, expectations for box office totals have shifted since the pandemic. Even if Gosling’s latest movie fails to reach profitability in theaters, it can still earn profit through digital sales and streaming. While a streaming date has not yet been revealed, it will likely first appear on video-on-demand services, before releasing on Peacock sometime in the future. If The Fall Guy can either bring new subscribers to Peacock or satisfy existing subscribers, it can still achieve some success, even if it failed to earn back its overall budget at the box office.

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